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发表于 2016-4-8 09:25
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本帖最后由 fademark 于 2016-4-8 09:32 编辑
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/w ... hay-20160407-go0it3
Wealth creation turns to preservation, says Knight Frank's Lord Hay
Fund manager Phil Mathews to sell 32 Julian Street in Sydney's Mosman for about $20 million.
Fund manager Phil Mathews to sell 32 Julian Street in Sydney's Mosman for about $20 million.
by Robert Harley
Andrew Hay, the Global Head of Residential for international real estate group, Knight Frank, and a Scottish Lord by heritage, has been dealing with ultra high net worth individuals – those with over $US30 million to invest –for much of his 30-year career in real estate.
After a dramatic decade, in which the number of UHNWIs around the world jumped by over 60 per cent, to 187,000, he expects the growth to slow in the next 10 years.
"The move is from wealth creation to wealth preservation," he said as he presented the key findings of The Wealth Report 2016 to a Knight Frank Sydney breakfast on Thursday.
"Succession and inheritance issues, wealth taxes and the global economy," are the key factors slowing the growth.
"Australasia is anticipated to slow even a little further than the global average," Lord Hay said.
But the number of the very wealthy will still grow strongly over the next decade, by 41 per cent to over 263,000, according to The Wealth Report.
The growth has implications from property. A quarter of the $US19.3 trillion held by UHNWIs is in residential property and another 11 per cent is in commercial real estate.
The strong growth of UHNWI investment in real estate might slow in the next decade, but only marginally.
Over the past decade, 54 per cent of UHNWI had increased their real estate holdings according to a survey of 400 private bankers and wealth advisors. Forty per cent are expected to increase their holdings in the next decade.
Eighth most important city
Sydney is now the eighth most important global city for UHNWI according to the survey.
"I think Sydney could become another London or New York. They are city states in their own right, disconnected from the rest of the country," Lord Hay said.
The move might surprise Sydneysiders for whom their city has become more congested and less affordable over the past decade.
"All the big cities have some challenges," Lord Hay said.
Other cities have more challenges than Sydney, like government intervention in Hong Kong or intervention and affordability in London.
"Five years ago Sydney was regarded as too far away. Now people are prepared to trade away the distance," Lord Hay said.
Over the past decade, prime residential prices in Sydney –and in Melbourne – have lagged the broader market but Knight Frank expects Sydney prime prices to rise 10 per cent this year, which is well ahead of most predictions for city-wide values.
Knight Frank's Global Head of Research, Liam Bailey, predicted that higher taxes, curbs on foreign investment and loan caps would continue to spread globally."
"As rising demand meets policy barriers, the spread of locations considered by investors will widen," he said.
Lord Hay said Knight Frank has over 14,000 prime property listings world wide and 29,000 active buyers with average $US3.5 million to spend.
He expects digital disruption to impact residential real estate in both leasing and sales at the lower price levels. UHNWIs, he said, would still require "excellent service and quality research".
"We are completely re-engineering in the UK, by the type of person we employ, by the way we train them and the way we work," Lord Hay said.
"A third of the work force will not be fit for service because they do not understand what good service is."
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